Funny how this crap works. A year after starting 23-5, I'm 1-5 and reeling. However, I still have much confidence I'll rebound.
I suppose we'll see.
Tampa Bay (-4.5) @ Atlanta
Tampa still has trouble running and stopping the run, and I think that hurts them here. The average Joe likes to think that after Tampa's devastating loss last week, they'll be all fired up. But Atlanta is probably in a worse mood after blowing a 17 point lead vs. the Skins, added to the fact the Bucs beat them twice last year, and they're laughing at QB Doug Johnson.
Key Matchup:
ATL Offensive Coordinator Pete Mangurian vs TB D-Coord Monte Kiffin.
The big key will be how Mangurian offsets a fierce Tampa pass rush. Stephen Davis was successful last week, and this week Mangurian must come up with a way to make Duckett and Dunn successful between the tackles. Any semblance of a running game will slow down that pass rush.
When they do pass, it's gotta be of the short variety, because Kiffin's defense is based on pressure from the front four and aggressive CB's. Look for Peerless to be utilized much more as a possession receiver and be the only solid pass catcher for the Falcons.
Kiffin is a defensive guru. But, Mangurian is one of the more brilliant O-line coaches around, and I think he'll find a way to move the ball on the ground against Tampa.
Stat to Watch:
Tampa Offensive Red Zone Percentage.
For the Bucs to cover this spread, they're going to have to punch it into the end zone. But with little running game to speak of, combined with Atlanta's solid corners, that won't come easy. Keion Carpenter will be back in the lineup for Atlanta to give them another coverage guy, and Jurevicius won't play, which is yet another Bucs weapon lost. If Buchanan and Williams can keep Keyshawn and McCardell out of the end zone, the Falcs should be able to cover this number.
Bottom line, Tampa hasn't played too well on turf over the last coupla years, and Reeves always has his team ready to play early in the year (6-2 in Sept. L3 yrs.) I expect the Falcons defense to come up with a big play against a pretty lackluster offense, and Duckett and Dunn to provide enough firepower to possibly give Atlanta a much needed home victory.
If Doug Johnson doesn't do anything real stupid, I like our chances here.
My pick:
Atlanta (+4.5)
Minnesota (-3.5) @ Detroit
This goes against my U-G-L-Y style, but I just don't see how Harrington and Co. can be successful against a much improved Vikes D.
Key Matchup:
Moe Williams vs. Detroit front seven.
The Lions pass D looked pretty good last week, but what do they have for a Vikes run offense that's averaged 178 YPG thus far. Probably not much. With LT Bryant McKinnie, C Matt Birk, and LG Chris Liwienski, Minnesota has one of the best left sides of the O-line in the game. Detroit has James Hall ad Shaun Rogers on the right side of their D-line, and they've been susceptible to the run. I expect close to 100 yards for Williams and at least 50 more between Culpepper and Onterrio Smith.
Stat to Watch:
Detroit Sacks, Knockdowns, Pressures, Etc. vs. Culpepper.
This is the only way the Lions win. They must force Daunte into mistakes with a mean pass rush. Of course if they can't stop the run, that makes this point almost moot. In their favor, Culpepper has a penchant for fumbling, and has been known to hold the ball too long waiting for Randy to get open. Simply, an average, mistake-free game from Culpepper should bring this one home. I like those odds.
I expect this to be a similar game to Detroit's Week 1 contest against Arizona, with the Lions on the other side of the coin. The Vikes offense will take advantage of Detroit mistakes and cruise out to an early lead. Detroit will find some success running the ball, but they'll be forced to throw to catch up, and Harrington's growing pains will continue for at least one more week.
My pick:
Minnesota (-3.5)
Good luck,
Space.
Tampa Bay (-4.5) @ Atlanta
Tampa still has trouble running and stopping the run, and I think that hurts them here. The average Joe likes to think that after Tampa's devastating loss last week, they'll be all fired up. But Atlanta is probably in a worse mood after blowing a 17 point lead vs. the Skins, added to the fact the Bucs beat them twice last year, and they're laughing at QB Doug Johnson.
Key Matchup:
ATL Offensive Coordinator Pete Mangurian vs TB D-Coord Monte Kiffin.
The big key will be how Mangurian offsets a fierce Tampa pass rush. Stephen Davis was successful last week, and this week Mangurian must come up with a way to make Duckett and Dunn successful between the tackles. Any semblance of a running game will slow down that pass rush.
When they do pass, it's gotta be of the short variety, because Kiffin's defense is based on pressure from the front four and aggressive CB's. Look for Peerless to be utilized much more as a possession receiver and be the only solid pass catcher for the Falcons.
Kiffin is a defensive guru. But, Mangurian is one of the more brilliant O-line coaches around, and I think he'll find a way to move the ball on the ground against Tampa.
Stat to Watch:
Tampa Offensive Red Zone Percentage.
For the Bucs to cover this spread, they're going to have to punch it into the end zone. But with little running game to speak of, combined with Atlanta's solid corners, that won't come easy. Keion Carpenter will be back in the lineup for Atlanta to give them another coverage guy, and Jurevicius won't play, which is yet another Bucs weapon lost. If Buchanan and Williams can keep Keyshawn and McCardell out of the end zone, the Falcs should be able to cover this number.
Bottom line, Tampa hasn't played too well on turf over the last coupla years, and Reeves always has his team ready to play early in the year (6-2 in Sept. L3 yrs.) I expect the Falcons defense to come up with a big play against a pretty lackluster offense, and Duckett and Dunn to provide enough firepower to possibly give Atlanta a much needed home victory.
If Doug Johnson doesn't do anything real stupid, I like our chances here.
My pick:
Atlanta (+4.5)
Minnesota (-3.5) @ Detroit
This goes against my U-G-L-Y style, but I just don't see how Harrington and Co. can be successful against a much improved Vikes D.
Key Matchup:
Moe Williams vs. Detroit front seven.
The Lions pass D looked pretty good last week, but what do they have for a Vikes run offense that's averaged 178 YPG thus far. Probably not much. With LT Bryant McKinnie, C Matt Birk, and LG Chris Liwienski, Minnesota has one of the best left sides of the O-line in the game. Detroit has James Hall ad Shaun Rogers on the right side of their D-line, and they've been susceptible to the run. I expect close to 100 yards for Williams and at least 50 more between Culpepper and Onterrio Smith.
Stat to Watch:
Detroit Sacks, Knockdowns, Pressures, Etc. vs. Culpepper.
This is the only way the Lions win. They must force Daunte into mistakes with a mean pass rush. Of course if they can't stop the run, that makes this point almost moot. In their favor, Culpepper has a penchant for fumbling, and has been known to hold the ball too long waiting for Randy to get open. Simply, an average, mistake-free game from Culpepper should bring this one home. I like those odds.
I expect this to be a similar game to Detroit's Week 1 contest against Arizona, with the Lions on the other side of the coin. The Vikes offense will take advantage of Detroit mistakes and cruise out to an early lead. Detroit will find some success running the ball, but they'll be forced to throw to catch up, and Harrington's growing pains will continue for at least one more week.
My pick:
Minnesota (-3.5)
Good luck,
Space.
